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Pakistan‘s hopes of reaching the Champions Trophy 2025 semifinals hang by a thread after a 6-wicket loss to India on February 23 in Dubai, marking their second defeat in as many matches. Sitting at the bottom of Group A with zero points and a net run rate (NRR) of -1.087, Mohammad Rizwan‘s side faces an uphill battle. However, the road to the semifinals isn’t completely closed yet—here’s how Pakistan can still sneak through.
The current picture
After falling to New Zealand by 60 runs on February 19 and now to India, Pakistan’s campaign has been rocked by early setbacks. India lead the Group A with 4 points and a healthy NRR of +0.647, while New Zealand hold second place with 2 points and an impressive NRR of +1.200. Bangladesh, with one loss and a game in hand, sit on zero points alongside Pakistan but have an NRR of -0.408. With only the top two teams from each group advancing, Pakistan’s qualification now depends on a perfect storm of results.
Qualification scenario for Pakistan
Pakistan’s final group-stage clash is against Bangladesh on February 27 in Rawalpindi. Here’s what needs to happen for them to keep their semifinal dreams alive:
A convincing win over Bangladesh
Pakistan must secure a victory—and not just any win. A massive margin, whether by 70-100 runs or with overs to spare while chasing, is critical to lift their NRR from its current depths. This is their last chance to control their destiny.
Bangladesh upset New Zealand
Today’s match—February 24 in Rawalpindi—between Bangladesh and New Zealand is a make-or-break moment for the hosts. A Bangladesh win keeps New Zealand at 2 points and Pakistan in the race. If New Zealand triumph, they’ll reach at least 4 points, effectively ending Pakistan’s hopes.
India topple New Zealand
The final piece of the puzzle comes on March 2 in Dubai, when India face New Zealand. An Indian victory would cap New Zealand at 2 points, opening the door for a potential three-way tie at 2 points between Pakistan, New Zealand, and Bangladesh—assuming Pakistan beat Bangladesh.
Also READ: IIT Baba faces backlash after India’s thumping win over Pakistan in Champions Trophy 2025
NRR showdown
In this scenario, with three teams level on points, NRR becomes the tiebreaker. Pakistan’s current -1.087 lags far behind New Zealand’s +1.200 and even Bangladesh’s -0.408. A huge win over Bangladesh, combined with a heavy New Zealand loss in one of their remaining games, could tilt the scales.
Where things stand currently
- India: 4 points, NRR +0.647 (2 wins)
- New Zealand: 2 points, NRR +1.200 (1 win, 1 loss)
- Pakistan: 0 points, NRR -1.087 (2 losses)
- Bangladesh: 0 points, NRR -0.408 (1 loss)
