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As the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 enters its final stretch, Group B has transformed into a high-pressure arena where South Africa, Afghanistan, and Australia are vying for semifinal berths. The recent upset by Afghanistan over England has added complexity to the qualification scenarios, making each upcoming match a potential knockout encounter.
The current landscape: A three-way battle
South Africa and Australia are currently tied at the top of Group B with three points each, but South Africa’s impressive net run rate (NRR) of +2.140 gives them a significant advantage over Australia’s +0.475. Meanwhile, Afghanistan, with two points from their crucial victory over England, remains in contention but must win against Australia to keep their hopes alive. England, having lost both their matches, is out of the running.
The crucial role of points and NRR in qualification
In the Champions Trophy, teams earn points based on their match results: two points for a win, one point for a no result or tie, and zero points for a loss. The NRR serves as a tiebreaker if teams are level on points, calculated by subtracting the runs conceded per over from the runs scored per over. This means that not only winning but also winning convincingly is crucial to boost NRR and secure a higher ranking.
NRR looms large, particularly for Australia and South Africa. South Africa’s colossal +2.140 grants them near immunity unless they suffer a record thrashing by England. Australia’s +0.475, while healthier than Afghanistan’s -0.990, remains vulnerable if they lose to Afghanistan and South Africa stumble marginally. Afghanistan’s only hope rests on a win so emphatic that it offsets their poor NRR, a Herculean task against Australia’s attack.
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Qualification scenarios for Australia, South Africa and Afghanistan
If Australia emerge victorious against Afghanistan in their final group game on February 28, they will secure five points and a semifinal berth. South Africa, with their current three points and superior NRR, would likely join them unless they suffer a catastrophic loss to England. Even a narrow defeat for South Africa could see them progress due to their NRR cushion. For Afghanistan, an Australian victory would mean elimination, regardless of their NRR, which lags far behind their rivals.
A historic Afghan win would catapult them to four points, leapfrogging Australia and turning the heat on South Africa. In this scenario, Afghanistan would qualify outright, leaving Australia’s fate dependent on South Africa’s result against England. If South Africa loses to England, Australia could still advance only if their NRR stays above the Proteas’. Given South Africa’s hefty NRR buffer, this would require an improbably heavy defeat for the Proteas.
The impact of rain on qualification
If both Australia vs. Afghanistan and South Africa vs. England are washed out, each team would earn one point. This would leave the group table as follows:
| Team | Points | NRR |
| South Africa | 4 | +2.140 |
| Australia | 4 | +0.475 |
| Afghanistan | 3 | -0.990 |
In this scenario, South Africa and Australia would qualify as the top two, with Afghanistan’s three points insufficient to bridge the NRR gap. Rain, thus, would brutally end Afghanistan’s dream while offering Australia and South Africa a stress-free passage.
