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Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) have suffered a significant setback in their quest for an IPL 2025 playoff berth, falling to a 37-run defeat against Punjab Kings (PBKS) in an important encounter at Dharamsala on Sunday. This loss marks LSG’s sixth of the season, leaving them precariously placed at seventh on the points table with 10 points from 11 matches. While their playoff aspirations are now significantly challenged, the path forward, though narrow, is not entirely closed.
LSG’s current standing reflects five wins and six losses, coupled with a Net Run Rate (NRR) of -0.469. This negative NRR could prove to be a crucial factor in a tightly contested playoff race that sees a cluster of teams vying for the coveted top four spots.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Punjab Kings, Mumbai Indians (MI), Gujarat Titans (GT), Delhi Capitals (DC) and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) are all in contention, and PBKS’s victory over LSG has propelled them to second place, further intensifying the competition in the middle of the table.
For LSG to keep their playoff dreams alive, their destiny, while still in their hands, demands perfection in the remaining league stage. The margin for error has effectively vanished.
IPL 2025 qualification scenario: What LSG must do?
LSG’s path to the playoffs hinges on a few critical factors:
Win all their remaining matches: The most straightforward, albeit challenging, route for LSG is to secure victories in all three of their remaining league fixtures. These crucial matches are against RCB, GT and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH). Winning all three would elevate LSG to 16 points. Historically, a tally of 16 points has often been sufficient to guarantee a spot in the playoffs.
Boost the Net Run Rate: Simply winning might not be enough. Given their current negative NRR of -0.469, LSG must not only aim for wins but also strive for comprehensive victories with significant margins. Apoor performance in terms of runs scored and conceded in their remaining matches could severely impact their NRR. In a scenario where multiple teams finish on the same points tally, a superior NRR could be the deciding factor for playoff qualification. Therefore, maximizing winning margins and minimizing losing margins will be paramount.
Dependence on other results (if they slip): While winning all three games offers the most control over their destiny, should LSG falter and lose even one of their remaining matches, their qualification becomes significantly more complicated and dependent on the results of other teams. Finishing on 12 or 14 points would make their playoff chances highly unlikely in this competitive season. In such a scenario, LSG would need several other contenders to lose their matches, and they would have to hope for a favourable combination of results across the league to have any realistic chance of progressing.
Consequence of more defeats for LSG
The implications of dropping points are stark for LSG:
One more loss: A single defeat in their remaining three matches would almost certainly spell the end of LSG’s playoff aspirations. A maximum of 12 points would be insufficient to qualify in what is shaping up to be a high-scoring and closely contested season where 14 or even 16 points might be the minimum requirement for some teams.
Two wins (finishing on 14 points): If LSG manage to win only two of their last three games, they would finish the league stage with 14 points. While 14 points could theoretically be enough in some seasons, in the current competitive landscape, it would necessitate a heavy reliance on other teams’ results going in their favour. Furthermore, they would likely need a substantial improvement in their NRR, which would be difficult to achieve with only two wins. The odds would be firmly stacked against them.
