The ODI World Cup is at full tilt in India, with half of the round-robin stage complete. Each team has played at least four games, and we have a good idea of which countries are looking in good shape to progress to the knockout stage.
Top performers so far
Host nation India has looked the best out of the lot, winning all five of their games comprehensively, having triumphed in two big games against Australia and Pakistan already. Rohit Sharma’s men find themselves as firm favourites to not just make it past the group stage, but to lift the World Cup itself.
New Zealand also boast four wins out of five, and while some of their latest victories have come against weaker opposition in Bangladesh and the Netherlands, their 9-wicket drubbing of 2019 champions England in the tournament opener puts them in good stead to make it to the semi-finals.
South Africa lost only one game so far at this World Cup as things stand, and are also the only team to cross 400, which they did in their first game vs Sri Lanka. Temba Bavuma’s unit went on to humiliate Australia by 134 runs in Lucknow, and while a win against the Netherlands was expected, a positive result in that game has not always been the case for the Proteas in recent times.
Assessing semifinal qualification
It might be a bit too early to say with certainty who the four semi-finalists will be, but considering the points table thus far, let us assume that all three of India, New Zealand and South Africa are going to qualify. 6 to 7 wins out of 9 in the round-robins should realistically be enough to qualify for the semi-finals, and these three teams are halfway there already, with three games to go. So the question is, which side is most likely to finish fourth in the group stage, and sneak their way to a knockout berth?
Eliminating weaker contenders
Let’s apply the process of elimination to shortlist the contenders for this all-important spot. Sri Lanka have lost all three of their fixtures, and have an injury list longer than the Harry Potter series, so the odds of them winning all six of their remaining games are near to nothing.
The other winless team is the Netherlands, and the fact that they have qualified for the World Cup is an overachievement on its own. It would take nothing short of divine intervention for them to go on an unbeaten streak, straight into the semi-finals.
Bangladesh defeated Afghanistan in their opening game, but fell short vs New Zealand and England. The Tigers do not look the part to pull off a string of complete performances with both bat and ball, which is what they will need, at the bare minimum.
As for Afghanistan, while their historic win vs England in Delhi must not be discredited, they are still some way away from being more than a spoiler team, and their current ceiling is nothing more than perhaps pulling off a couple of more upsets. They could end up with 5 wins at best, and that is me being generous.
The heavyweights: England, Australia, Pakistan
That leaves us with England, Australia, and Pakistan, all three of whom are former ODI World Cup champions, and certified heavyweights in the international cricket circuit.
England, the current holders of the ODI World Cup, are a team which has revolutionized white ball cricket in the aftermath of their group stage exit in the 2015 edition of the competition. Their belligerent brand of batting that has influenced so much success has been missing in action, however, and while a loss to New Zealand isn’t the worst thing, getting routed out by Afghanistan is a major concern. Realistically, England should overcome the Netherlands with ease, but to win four out of five games vs Australia, Pakistan, South Africa, India, and Sri Lanka, will be a task and three quarters. Things aren’t looking particularly on the up for Jos Buttler’s attacking champions.
Key challenges for England and Australia
Australia, on the other hand, have also lost two out of four games in the competition, but both of their losses have come against quality opposition in India and South Africa. They defeated Sri Lanka in their latest fixture, and are yet to face Afghanistan, Bangladesh and the Netherlands. If they can manage to defeat all three, Australia will need to win two out of three games against Pakistan, New Zealand, and England.
Upcoming matches
Babar Azam’s team has won two out of five games, but their victories have come against lesser sides in Sri Lanka and the Netherlands, whereas their loss was an ugly one vs arch-rivals India. Pakistan have a decent side, but their not-so-aggressive approach may have lost them the match vs Australia.
Pakistan’s game vs Afghanistan did not favour them in the slightest. They will also be facing South Africa at Chepauk, and it could all potentially boil down to their final group game vs England in Kolkata.
Pakistan are a strong tournament team, especially in the last couple of ICC events, but their skill-set does not suit the conditions that they will be playing in, so the odds of them qualifying for the semi-finals are a touch weaker than those of Australia. They need to win four out of six games, but barring Bangladesh, they will find it tough to dominate against the other five teams.
That said, we can never truly write off New Zealand and especially South Africa experiencing a drop-off. But the winner of the match in Bangalore is probably the best bet to steal the fourth spot.
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