Defeat against Bangladesh on Monday in a match that will always be remembered for Angelo Matthews’ dismissal- the first time in history a batsman was given out ‘timed out’ in an international match- effectively knocked Sri Lanka out of the World Cup, with this being their last match. But a Top 8 finish and a place in the next Champions Trophy is still up for grabs and a win here would certainly help their cause no end. 

In their path lie New Zealand, on a four-match losing streak, but still in a good position to qualify for the semi-finals after an excellent start to the tournament. They know that a win here may still not be enough to qualify for the last four but crucially, they also know that a defeat will give them almost no chance entirely. So they need to do their job and win and hope other results go their way. 

So, plenty to play for in a game that means a lot for both sides. Let’s try and predict what might happen in it! 

New Zealand v Sri Lanka betting preview

📝 New Zealand vs Sri Lanka odds

There are stats and betting tips coming up right now but first up, let’s consider the latest odds from our favourite cricket betting sites. 

Cricbaba:

10CRIC:

Rajabets:

New Zealand vs Sri Lanka predictions

This one will be played in Bangalore. Fans of the IPL will know that over the years this has been regarded as one of the highest-scoring grounds in T20’s best and richest domestic T20 tournament thanks to a good batting wicket and short boundaries. 

There have so far been three matches played here at this World Cup.

Australia posted a big 367 against Pakistan and won by a 62-run margin but a high-scoring first innings from the Aussies was followed by a dismal batting performance from England batting first, who managed just 156, which was chased with ease by Sri Lanka. 

But Australia’s big total was trumped by South Africa, who despite posting a monster score of 401/6 still lost the match. At 200/1 at the halfway stage, the heavens opened and with Babar Azam’s team ahead on DLS, they ended up winning by 21 runs. 

Rain, sadly, may play its part in this match too. There are expected to be showers at some stage of the game according to the forecast and it may be one of those games where there are plenty of interruptions due to the weather and most likely a reduction in overs. That means Duckworth-Lewis Stern playing its part, just like in that South Africa v Pakistan game. 

On the one hand, that means that analysis of first innings scores may be somewhat irrelevant given the side batting first may not be able to bat the full 50 overs. On the other hand, one has to assume that a shortened match may play into New Zealand’s hands as they have the more powerful batsmen who can capitalise in a shortened match.   

The good news is we’re at least likely to have a completed match with a proper result rather than a rained-off one with a share of the points. 

Team Updates 

New Zealand have plenty of injury problems. 

Matt Henry is out of the World Cup while Lockie Ferugson is recovering from injury, but unlikely to play here. Veteran Tim Southee will carry on playing in the place of Henry but then it will be a straight choice between leg-spinner Ish Sodhi- extremely expensive against Pakistan- and bowling all-rounder Kyle Jamieson for who will come in for Ferguson. The smart money is on Jamieson.  At least skipper Kane Williamson will be available again after returning from an injury of his own against Pakistan. 

Sri Lanka have been hamstrung by injuries themselves and with not much ‘on the bench’ to bring in, may field the same side as they did in that defeat to Bangladesh. 

  • New Zealand Possible XI: Conway, Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Neesham, Santner, Jamieson, Southee, Boult
  • Sri Lanka Possible XI: Nissanka, Perera, Mendis, Samarawickrama, Asalanka, Dhananjaya, Matthews, Wellalage, Theekshana, Madushanka, Rajitha

So that’s the team news done. Let’s move on to some useful stats. 

📊 New Zealand vs Sri Lanka key stats

  • 101 matches between these two have produced 51 wins for New Zealand, 41 for Sri Lanka and eight no results. There was also as tie between them. 
  • Sri Lanka have dominated in terms of matches played on Indian soil: three matches (1997, 2006 and 2011) resulted in three wins for Sri Lanka. The last of those was a group match at the 2011 World Cup. 
  • It’s been all New Zealand over the last seven years or so in ODIs though; they won seven of the last eight (with one abandoned match) although admittedly, all of those were played in New Zealand.  
  • Kane Williamson has an unsurprisingly good record against Sri Lanka. 22 innings against them have produced one century, seven fifties and an average of 38. 
2023 Cricket World Cup betting tips

New Zealand vs Sri Lanka betting tips 

New Zealand are hot favourites at around the 1.28 mark. 

They’ll certainly need to improve on recent performances that have seen them lose four in a row here at the World Cup. But man for man, they’re certainly a stronger side than a Sri Lanka who have struggled for consistency themselves, suffered a load on injuries of their own and will be downbeat about losing to Bangladesh. 

Sometimes, a rain-shortened match can play into the hands of the outsider, but that may not be the case here. 

The good news for Sri Lanka fans and would-be backers is that the men in blue have beaten the Black Caps three times out of three in matches played in India. That’s as good as it gets in terms of favourable stats for Kusal Mendis’ team and a win for them here would be a considerable upset. 

By the way, at Cricket Times you can check out all the best Cricket World Cup betting offers currently available, a good way of getting your hands on a free bet, a risk-free bet or other bonuses giving you value as a thank you for being a loyal customer. 

1. Glenn Phillips to be New Zealand’s Top Batsman – 10.24 at 10CRIC 

If the rain does come and results in a shortened match, you’d think that the Top 4 batters for each side will almost certainly be the only ones to consider. But maybe not.

In T20 matches it’s not always the top-order batsmen who come good and we’re not 100% sure that the rain will seriously reduce the number of overs anyway.  

All of which means Glenn Phillips, expected to bat at five or six, may have a considerably better chance of top scoring for New Zealand than odds of 10.24 suggest. He’s already made a mockery of those odds by top-scoring twice in eight games at this World Cup and may well be moved up the order so the Black Caps can make the most of his power-hitting. 

This is one of those bets where a few things may have to go our way, starting with a couple of early NZ wickets. But if they do, there are big rewards on offer for an in-form, quick-scoring player at very attractive odds. 

➡️ Bet on Glenn Phillips to be New Zealand’s Top Batsman at 10.24 with 10CRIC

2. Dilshan Madushanka to be Sri Lanka Top Bowler – 3.3 at Rajabets

If our first bet is on an outsider and would need some fortune for him to come good, then our second is far more straightforward. 

The excellent left-arm pace bowler Dilshan Madushanka has been one of the revelations of the tournament. At the time of writing, his 21 wickets are more than anyone else has managed. 

With Sri Lanka unable to make the semis, he won’t be the tournament’s top bowler but it’s testament to just how well he’s bowling that he’s leading the charts for wickets in a struggling side.

But perhaps far more impressive than that and in what is arguably the start of the tournament, consider this:  in eight matches at this World Cup, he’s been a top bowler for Sri Lanka in six and tied in another. 

So, we don’t think we need to into any more detail as to why he’s a great bet at 3.3 to do it again. 

➡️  Dilshan Madushanka to be Sri Lanka’s Top Bowler at 3.3 with Rajabets

3. Back Rachin Ravindra to be Player of the Match – 6.4 at Cricbaba

Youngster Ravindra has come so far this tournament that he’s favourite to be the man of the match here. Then again, he deserves to be. 

His 523 runs make him the third-highest runscorer in the competition (despite being an all-rounder) while he’s also taken a handy three wickets. 

So, with the ability to do damage with both bat and ball, he’s a serious contender for man of the match again, something he’s already achieved once and been extremely unlucky not to have got two or three times. 

With the Black Caps favoured to win, he’ll certainly be in the mix. 

➡️ Back Rachin Ravindra to be Player of the Match at 6.4 with Cricbaba

How to watch New Zealand vs Sri Lanka

  • Location: M. Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore, India. 
  • Date and time: Thursday 09 November 2023, 14:00 IST. 
  • How to watch: Star Sports or through live streaming at Disney+, ESPN+, or Switch TV.

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About the Author:
JAMES PACHECO
James Pacheco has been watching, writing about and betting on cricket ever since watching South Africa's ill-fated run chase against Australia in the semi-finals of the 1999 Cricket World Cup. Since then he rates the 2005 Ashes as the best Test series he's ever watched and South Africa's successful run chase of 438 against Australia as the best ODI he witnessed, seven years after that disastrous single in 1999 cost the Proteas a place in the World Cup final. His favourite-ever players are Shane Warne, Kumar Sangakkara, Jacques Kallis and Daniel Vettori. His favourite markets to bet on are the top batsman and in particular, the man-of-the-match markets, where big rewards are on offer when you get it right. He's patiently waiting for the day when Virat Kohli breaks every international batting record going. You can follow James on LinkedIn.