The 2023 Cricket World Cup’s most dangerous underdogs

India in 1983. Pakistan in 1992. Sri Lanka in 1996. Kenya in 2003. Not to mention Ireland and Bangladesh knocking out Pakistan and India in 2007, in the very first round. Most Cricket World Cups have had a classic underdog story, fit for the history books. So what about 2023 World Cup? Which team is likely to emerge as the most dangerous underdog in the latest edition of the prestigious cup?

It’s safe to assume that hosts India and defending champions England are the favourites to lift the trophy. You can throw in 5 time winners Australia in there too, and Babar Azam’s Pakistan don’t quite qualify as underdogs either. A case could be made for South Africa, given their World Cup history, but on paper the Proteas stack up quite nicely, so we shall exclude them from this exercise as well. That leaves us with five teams to analyze, three of which are Asian.

Table of Contents

Afghanistan

Afghanistan have high quality spin bowling resources, who possess the ability to rattle the best in the business. Rashid Khan, who is the undisputed leader of Afghanistan’s spin attack, is arguably the hottest T20 commodity in franchise cricket, and undoubtedly one of the top tweakers in the modern era. Mujeeb Ur Rahman and Mohammad Nabi, along with the young and exciting Noor Ahmad give Rashid formidable company, but that is pretty much where the buck stops for Afghanistan, barring a couple of decent batters.

On his day, Rahmanullah Gurbaz can dismantle any opposition, and Ibrahim Zadran can anchor and accumulate effectively, but apart from this opening pair, Afghanistan’s batting simply does not hold up. Given those strengths and weaknesses, one can expect an upset or three from the Afghans, but that might just be their ceiling. This will be their third appearance in the 50 over World Cup, and a solitary win in two editions does not speak volumes.

Sri Lanka

Former champions and two times runners up Sri Lanka recently went on a 13 game run in ODI cricket, the second best unbeaten streak in the format’s history, which allowed them to qualify for the World Cup. Those victories may have come against relatively weaker opposition, but the island nation had some seriously good strike bowlers in their artillery, and one would imagine Indian conditions to suit them as well.

There was a solid argument for Sri Lanka to be prime underdogs at the World Cup, had it not been for an abundance of injuries, that too incurred by some of their most important players in Wanindu Hasaranga and Dushmantha Chameera. Off break sensation Maheesh Theekshana also pulled his hamstring in the Asia Cup, and might find himself on the bench in the early stages of the mega event.

Those are serious concerns for Sri Lanka, and could be the difference between 5 and 2 wins for them, out of a possible 9. While they were good enough to play the final of the Asia Cup, their injury list suggests that they might not prove to be the most potent of underdogs come World Cup.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh complete the trio of Asian underdogs, and based on their squad, they look like the most likely out of the three to cause a stir. Even after having lost Tamim Iqbal due to lack of fitness and apparent controversy, the Tigers boast the likes of superstar all-rounder Shakib Al Hasan, who along with wicketkeeper Mushfiqur Rahim adds a wealth of experience to that lineup.

Mustafizur Rahman has been around for a bit now, and along with Taskin Ahmed, who is one of the most improved pacers of recent times, Bangladesh’s fast bowling stocks look better than ever before. And this is after losing Ebadot Hossain to injury. Litton Das has emerged as a senior player in recent times, Najmul Hossain Shanto is peaking with the bat, Mehidy Hasan Miraz adds depth with both bat and ball, and young Towhid Hridoy is the talk of the town, courtesy of his unabashed ball-striking ability.

Could this be Bangladesh’s year? If cricket was played on paper, that was a fair shout. Unfortunately for Shakib’s unit, however, their scoring rate is an issue, due to which they are mostly playing catch up, and they do not take as many wickets as they should. They might fare as a better team than Sri Lanka or Afghanistan, but to be labeled as the most dangerous underdog would be a stretch.

Netherlands

Let’s rewind time a bit, going back to the last T20 World Cup in Australia, in late 2022. The standout underdog story was the Netherlands denying South Africa a chance to feature in the semi-finals, much to the delight of Pakistan supporters. The Dutch took that tournament form into the World Cup Qualifiers, and managed to eke out a brilliant campaign with limited resources, given how most of their first string performers were tied to domestic contracts in England.

It was a phenomenal road to the World Cup for the Netherlands, with all-rounders Bas de Leede and Logan van Beek steering the way; the latter sealing a memorable super over victory vs the West Indies, smashing 30 runs off Jason Holder before taking two wickets, which is perhaps the best 11 ball run of play for any cricketer, ever.

While the Dutch can be surprisingly effective bowling in the powerplay, they don’t particularly match other World Cup teams in any other phase, and are the weakest unit pound for pound, especially in Indian conditions. Can they pull off a surprise win at the World Cup? It is improbable, but still an outside chance. That does not change the fact that the Netherlands are possibly the weakest of the underdogs in this tournament.

New Zealand

That leaves us with New Zealand. You must be wondering why the Kiwis have been classified as underdogs at all, considering they have ended as runners up in the last two 50 over World Cups. There is sound reasoning behind this notion. In Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi and Rachin Ravindra, the Black Caps do not have the most impressive spin bowling unit, and a few of their players are returning from injuries, including skipper Kane Williamson.

Tim Southee has just undergone surgery on his thumb, and speed demon Lockie Ferguson is woefully out of form. All things considered, however, New Zealand still have some quality cricketers at their disposal, in Trent Boult, Glenn Phillips, Devon Conway, Matt Henry, and their captain.

While they have never managed to win the World Cup, New Zealand have routinely punched above their weight, and almost always surprise cricket experts and pundits with their terrific tournament form. It is also important to note that 9 of their 15 selected players were present in England four years ago, thereby instilling some belief that this golden generation could still, in theory, deliver a World Cup title.

There are few skippers out there who are more astute than the ice cold Kane Williamson, and New Zealand has maintained its reputation as a top fielding side over the years. An underdog team if there ever was one, write the Black Caps off at your own peril, for they stand out amongst the five teams discussed in this piece, and could very well find themselves with a shot at World Cup glory yet again, by the barest of margins.

On first glance, when you look at Rashid Khan’s numbers, you could make an argument for him being the most potent spinner who will be gracing the 2023 World Cup.

If we look at Rashid’s stats against all the Test playing nations who will be participating in the marquee event, however, there is a considerable dip. In 28 innings, his average rises to 28.80, with 30 wickets coming against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Take those countries out, and you are looking at just 11 wickets in 10 innings, with his average ballooning up to a colossal 47.18.

That said, Rashid is quick in the air, and batters across the globe routinely struggle to pick both his googly and stock delivery. The fact that the Afghan superstar has been one of the hottest commodities in franchise T20 leagues for a good part of the last decade lays testament to his limited overs pedigree, and if Afghanistan are to spring up a surprise or three in India, it would be on the behest of their MVP bamboozling a fair few.