Will Rizwan score the most runs at this World Cup?

68 runs vs the Netherlands. An unbeaten knock of 131 vs Sri Lanka, which turned out to be a match-winning one, helped Pakistan chase down a record total of 345 runs in World Cup cricket. 49 runs vs India followed, which propelled Pakistan’s wicketkeeper-batter Mohammad Rizwan to the top of the run-scoring charts in the ongoing ODI World Cup. So is Pakistan’s number four batter a worthy bet to end this World Cup with the most runs in the competition?

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The leading run scorers at the 2023 ICC World Cup

At 248 runs in 3 innings, Rizwan is 19 runs clear of the next-best batter, Devon Conway, and 31 runs ahead of Indian skipper Rohit Sharma. It is worth mentioning that South African opening batter Quinton de Kock, who will be retiring from the ODI format at the end of this World Cup, has played one innings less than the top three run scorers mentioned above, and has scored hundreds in both the innings he has batted in. Wicketkeepers are clearly in business in this tournament, as two runs below Quinton is Sri Lanka’s stand-in captain Kusal Mendis, at 207 runs in 3 innings.

Betting odds and analysis

If we look at the market for each of these batters, Rohit Sharma rules the roost, with odds of 11/2 to end up as the highest run-getter of the 2023 World Cup. Considering the fact that Rohit has scored north of 10,000 runs in ODI cricket, opened the batting for India, and is playing in home conditions, these odds seem plausible. That said, since the start of 2022, Rohit has transformed his game from being an out-and-out run accumulator to a powerplay basher, striking the ball at a smidgen under 116 in this period. Compare that to his career strike rate of just over 91, and conventional wisdom suggests that Sharma might value quick starts over big runs in this World Cup, which makes him somewhat of an unsafe bet, regardless of his current form.

Top contenders for the highest run scorer

After Rohit, Quinton de Kock has the best odds amongst the five batters in question, sitting pretty at 13/2. The South African superstar has over 6000 runs in the 50-over format, with 2 of his 19 hundreds coming in this tournament. His form and numbers speak for themselves, but given the fact that Quinton opens the batting, he might succumb to some low scores, outdone by the new ball. If the law of averages suggests anything, it is that after two consecutive tons, a failure is just around the corner. He remains a decent shout nonetheless, as the odds suggest.

Another opener who is making waves in India is the South Africa-born New Zealand ace, Devon Conway. He was dominant in his unbeaten 152 vs England in the tournament opener, which allowed New Zealand to seal a comprehensive victory over the 2019 champions, and make a statement in the process. The Southpaw from Wellington has not yet crossed 50 in two innings after that phenomenal knock but has a penchant for scoring consistent runs in ODIs. An average of 52 and a half in a young career of 24 ODI innings, including 5 centuries and 3 fifties, suggests that Conway crosses fifty once in every three innings, which does justice to his odds of 7/1 of ending up as the highest run-scorer in this competition.

Kusal Mendis, who has been phenomenal with the bat for Sri Lanka, seems to finally have come of age and has scored his runs at an otherworldly strike rate of nearly 157 in the ongoing World Cup. His approach however does not help his odds of ending up at the top of the run charts, nor does the reality of it being highly improbable for Sri Lanka to qualify for the knockout stage. Mendis is a great story, but not a good bet.

Rizwan’s recent ODI performance

So where does that leave Mohammad Rizwan, the current leading run-getter in the ongoing World Cup? Well, you would be surprised to know that oddsmakers have him at 10/1 odds, not just below Rohit, Quinton, and Conway, but also below Virat Kohli, who has scored 92 runs less than him, as things stand. This makes Rizwan a really good punt, even more so if you take into account his recent record in ODIs.

Nearly 2000 runs in 62 ODI innings, at an average of 40 plus and a strike rate under 90, are modest numbers, at best. 18 of those 62 innings, however, came in 2023, which is 29% of Rizwan’s ODI career. In these 18 outings, Rizwan has 876 runs at an average of 73, striking just below 93, including 7 half-centuries and a hundred. Prior to that historic ton vs Sri Lanka, no Pakistan number four batter had scored an ODI hundred since March 2019, back when Rizwan himself slammed two centuries vs Australia in the UAE.

What does this tell us? Well for starters, considering over 45% of Rizwan’s career ODI runs have come in 2023, and the fact that his less-than-run-a-ball strike rate makes him a risk-averse batter, the chances of him finishing this World Cup as the overall leading run-scorer are decent, if not very good.

Is Rizwan a worthwhile bet?

Because Rizwan plays safe cricket and is a man in form, run accumulation is coming naturally to him, and he is often the batter who digs Pakistan out of a crisis situation, in recent times. He is a good sweeper of the ball, in addition to being a busy batter, which are good attributes to have in Indian conditions. Betting 10 bucks on him could result in winning 100, which is not too shabby at all.

Sometimes he cramps, sometimes he acts, but Rizwan almost always finds himself amongst the runs for Pakistan, taking on the mantle of that senior player in a historically unstable batting line-up, shouldering the responsibility to deliver with consistency. He has fared well in this role and could end up having a World Cup to remember. The reason he is an outsider is because he bats at number four, the top three usually win these awards. Plus Pakistan may not play in the finals, meaning he might miss out on a couple of games. But if you factor in his form, he might still be worth placing a bet at a cricket betting site, that’s for sure.

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